Bursting Bubble-Thinking About Brazil

000…Brazil is a country of the future.
—-…Brazil will always remain a country of the future if average educational achievement stays at seven years of formal schooling per capita. Higher education enrolls only 2% of the population, but consumes a quarter of the total education budget (see Hunter and Sugiyama 2009).

000…Brazil is economically stable.
—-…Brazil is still mainly a commodity exporter, and in the long run commodities will always be the most volatile type of export.

000…Brazilian policies will remain consistent because of the current continuity in political party leadership.
—-…Political continuity, especially when paired with legislative dominance in Congress, tends to eviscerate checks and balances, diminishes accountability and increases discretion, which often result in institutional abuses and corruption.

000…Brazil’s newfound oil wealth will speed the country’s progress.
—…Developing Countries and oil don’t have the best “progress” record. Read a book called “The Paradox of Plenty” or just take a look at a few “developing” oil states, such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Mexico, Iraq, and Russia, among others.

000…President Lula da Silva is responsible for Brazil’s recent progress.
—…Lula maintained the continuity of most of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso‘s (1995-2003) policies with regards to economic management and even many social programs, such as the conditional-cash-transfer program now called Bolsa Familia.

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